Estimating the Economic Impact on the Supply of the Agricultural Sector due to Covid-19 in Ecuador

Abstract

This research aims to estimate the economic impact that occurred on the supply of the agricultural sector due to COVID-19, which emerged at the end of 2019, becoming the strongest social and economic impact since the Second World War, and which, due to its accelerated level of expansion, in Ecuador a confinement phase was decreed in March 2020, taking the curfew as a priority measure, however, agri-food chains maintained their activities since their products are of great importance. To achieve the objective, a quantitative scope methodology was applied, developing a Linear Regression model with polynomial trends, which related the relevant variables within the agricultural sector to determine the economic impact that occurred on the supply of the agricultural sector caused by confinement. of Covid-19, considering the period between January 2018 until April 2021. These variables are: Gross Agricultural Value Added and the price indices of Inputs, Fertilizers, Agrochemicals, Consumer and Producer. The findings of this analysis show that the COVID-19 lockdown did not directly affect the overall production of the agricultural sector, but rather certain factors. In turn, benefits were generated for the farmer, since the prices of inputs and agrochemical products decreased considerably, reducing production costs. It is concluded that Covid-19 caused changes in five of the six variables evaluated, that is, that confinement affected the most important price factors in the agricultural sector, but not total production.

https://doi.org/10.26803/MyRes.2024.06